Political scientist Graham Allison coined a now-famous term: “Thucydides’s Trap.” The concept describes the intense structural stress and high likelihood of war when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one. While the term is modern, its inspiration comes directly from the ancient historian’s analysis of the Peloponnesian War. This text will explore that original analysis. Using Thucydides’s own words, we can find striking parallels between the Athens-Sparta conflict and the modern rivalry between China and the United States.
Table of Contents
The Core Dynamic: A Rising Power and a Fearful Ruler
The foundation of the trap is a simple, powerful observation. Thucydides states it plainly when explaining why the Peloponnesian War began. He dismisses the immediate quarrels as mere pretexts.
For him, the true cause was something deeper. He writes, “The real cause, however, I consider to be the one which was formally most kept out of sight. The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta, made war inevitable” (p. 50).
This is the central dynamic. It is not necessarily aggression, but the structural change in the balance of power that creates the danger. The rising power does not have to be malevolent. The ruling power does not have to be paranoid. The very fact of the shift creates a volatile environment.
Today, this dynamic is mirrored in the relationship between the United States and China. The U.S. has been the established global power for decades. China is the rapidly rising challenger, expanding its economic, military, and technological influence. The “alarm” Thucydides saw in Sparta is now palpable in Washington D.C.
🏛️ The Psychology of the Ruling Power (Sparta / USA)
Thucydides’s text provides a brilliant case study of the ruling power’s dilemma. Sparta, the established land power, was slow to act. Its allies, particularly the Corinthians, grew increasingly frustrated with its inaction.
The Corinthians openly accused the Spartans of complacency. They warned that Sparta was allowing the Athenian threat to grow unchecked. In a speech to the Spartan assembly, they charged: “You, Spartans, of all the Hellenes are alone inactive… you alone wait till the power of an enemy is becoming twice its original size, instead of crushing it in its infancy” (p. 80-90).
This sentiment reflects modern debates. Many analysts argue that the United States and other Western powers were too slow to recognize the strategic challenge posed by China’s rise, hoping it would integrate peacefully into the existing order.
However, the Spartan king, Archidamus, reveals the complexity of the ruling power’s position. He cautioned his people against a rash war. He recognized that Athens was a new kind of power, with formidable financial and naval resources that Sparta could not easily match (p. 90-91). His speech shows a deep anxiety. To act too soon is to risk a devastating war; to wait too long is to risk being overtaken. This is the very heart of the trap for an established power.
🌪️ The Mindset of the Rising Power (Athens / China)
Thucydides’s description of the Athenian character is perhaps the most chilling parallel to modern perceptions of China. The Corinthians describe the Athenians as a force of nature. They are “addicted to innovation,” “adventurous beyond their power,” and “daring beyond their judgment” (p. 81).
The Corinthians famously conclude that the Athenians “were born into the world to take no rest themselves and to give none to others” (p. 82). This portrait of a restless, relentlessly expanding, and disruptive power resonates strongly with how many in the West view China’s global ambition today.
Furthermore, Thucydides shows how the Athenians justified their growing empire. In a speech at Sparta, Athenian envoys do not claim a moral right to their power. Instead, they argue from a position of realism and security. They claim “it has always been the law that the weaker should be subject to the stronger” (p. 86). They insist their actions were necessary for their own safety and that any other state in their position would have done the same (p. 86).
This mirrors China’s official narrative of a “peaceful rise.” It frames its expansion and military buildup not as aggression, but as a necessary step to secure its own interests and reclaim what it sees as its rightful place in the world.
The Role of Allies and Flashpoints (Corinth / Taiwan)
The Thucydides’s Trap dynamic is rarely a simple two-body problem. It is often the conflicts involving smaller allies that act as catalysts for the great powers. In the Peloponnesian War, the flashpoint was the dispute between Corinth, Sparta’s most important ally, and Corcyra.
When Athens (the rising power) chose to ally with Corcyra, it directly challenged Corinth’s interests. This intervention pulled the ruling power, Sparta, into the conflict (p. 56-65). The Corinthians, fearing for their own security, became the most vocal advocates for war, pushing a reluctant Sparta to finally confront Athens (p. 79).
This provides a powerful historical analogy for modern flashpoints. A conflict over Taiwan, or a confrontation in the South China Sea involving a U.S. ally like the Philippines or Japan, could serve the same function as the Corcyraean affair. It could be the event that transforms a great power competition into a direct military confrontation, dragging the primary actors into a war that neither may have initially wanted.
Summary
- The “Real Cause”: Thucydides’s own text identifies the core of the trap: the growth of a rising power (Athens) and the fear this creates in the established power (Sparta) makes war almost inevitable (p. 50).
- Ruling Power’s Dilemma: The PDF shows Sparta as hesitant, criticized by its allies for being too slow to act, yet internally fearful of a costly and uncertain war against a new kind of challenger (p. 80, 90-91). This mirrors the complex choices facing the U.S.
- Rising Power’s Drive: The Athenians are portrayed as relentlessly innovative, ambitious, and disruptive, justifying their expansion as a matter of security and natural law (p. 81-82, 86). This provides a historical parallel for understanding China’s rise.
- Flashpoints: Conflicts involving smaller allies, like the dispute over Corcyra, can act as the catalyst that drags the great powers into direct conflict, a sobering lesson for modern hotspots like Taiwan (p. 56-65, 79).
Works Cited
Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017.Thucydides. The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War. Edited by Robert B. Strassler, translated by Richard Crawley, Simon & Schuster, 1998.
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